empty
20.01.2025 09:02 AM
The Market Finds Shelter

The S&P 500 achieved its best weekly performance since the November U.S. presidential election, just before Donald Trump's inauguration. Initially, investors worried that his protectionist policies could negatively impact the U.S. economy. However, they now believe that the potential benefits from deregulation and fiscal stimulus will outweigh the drawbacks. Is this wishful thinking?

The broad market index surged by 4.7% during the week ending January 17, fueled by a strong start to the corporate earnings season and a 0.2% month-over-month decline in core inflation in the U.S. Major banks such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup reported positive fourth-quarter earnings, alleviating investor concerns. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve refraining from rate cuts in 2025—or even increasing rates—has decreased, boosting confidence in two expected monetary easing actions this year. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) official Christopher Waller even suggested the possibility of easing monetary policy in March.

Weekly S&P 500 Performance

This image is no longer relevant

Bank of America suggests that U.S. equities could benefit from Donald Trump's return to the White House. During his first term, Trump viewed the performance of U.S. stock indices as a measure of his effectiveness, and it is unlikely that this perspective will change from 2025 to 2028. UBS Global Wealth Management estimates a 9% increase in corporate earnings this year, which could push the S&P 500 to 6,600.

According to Jefferies, since 1929, the S&P 500 has historically followed a zigzag pattern during presidential inaugurations, averaging gains of 8.3% and 9.5% six and twelve months, respectively, after a new president takes office.

In the early days of Trump's second term, investors will consider the impacts of tariffs and anti-immigration policies alongside the potential benefits of fiscal stimulus and deregulation. It appears that the new president may begin by implementing import tariffs, setting this term apart from his previous one.

Market Expectations for Fed Policy

This image is no longer relevant

During his term from 2017 to 2020, Trump stimulated the economy through tax cuts but later resorted to tariffs and trade wars, which ultimately slowed down growth. This time, the sequence may be reversed. Import tariffs are likely to accelerate inflation and hinder economic growth, even though the current outlook remains strong. For example, the IMF predicts that U.S. GDP will grow by 2.8% in 2024. Consequently, uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy stance could increase, with derivatives currently indicating a 25% probability of a federal funds rate hike.

On the daily chart, the market illustrated the principle: "If the market does not move as expected, it is likely to move in the opposite direction." After an unsuccessful attempt to break below the lower boundary of the triangle, the market successfully breached the upper boundary. A strong test of resistance at 6010 could justify expanding long positions that were initiated at 5930.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin se vende fácilmente

Mientras el mercado debate cómo afectará la legislación sobre las stablecoins, la reanudación de las amenazas arancelarias de Donald Trump deteriora el apetito global por el riesgo y contribuye

Marek Petkovich 13:41 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Los litigios judiciales entre Trump y las empresas sobre los aranceles influirán negativamente en los mercados (existe la probabilidad de que continúe la caída del precio del Bitcoin y del Litecoin)

Los mercados mundiales siguen bajo la fuerte influencia de los acontecimientos que ocurren en Estados Unidos, que tanto en el ámbito político como en el económico se comportan como

Pati Gani 12:57 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 30 de mayo. La justicia prevaleció, ¿pero por cuánto tiempo?

El par de divisas el par GBP/USD el jueves se consolidó por debajo de la línea media móvil, mientras que el dólar creció durante tres días consecutivos. Sin embargo, todo

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 30 de mayo. Jaque a Donald Trump.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó un débil movimiento descendente durante la primera mitad del jueves, pero en la segunda mitad se disparó bruscamente al alza. Vimos un fuerte estallido

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 27 de mayo. La libra esterlina se mantiene estable.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento alcista el lunes. Es importante señalar de inmediato que la situación con el euro es bastante complicada e inestable. El euro

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-05-27 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 27 de mayo. El presidente dijo, el presidente cambió de opinión.

El par de divisas EUR/USD reanudó su movimiento alcista durante la sesión del lunes desde la apertura del mercado. Otra caída del dólar estadounidense la semana pasada fue provocada

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-05-27 UTC+2

El caos en los mercados continuará (hay probabilidad de una continuación de la caída local del #USDX y del precio del oro)

Los mercados continúan actuando a ciegas en medio de las acciones caóticas de D. Trump, quien intenta sacar a EE.UU. de la más profunda crisis integral como el barón

Pati Gani 11:26 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 22 de mayo. El mercado vuelve a responder sin ambigüedades a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento hacia el norte el miércoles, aunque a primera vista no había razones claras para ello. Sí, el nivel de inflación (el único

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 22 de mayo. Un nuevo golpe al dólar: «One big beautiful bill act».

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó su movimiento ascendente durante el miércoles. El dólar estadounidense lleva cayendo sin pausa por más de una semana, algo que no sucedía en todo

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

El Bitcoin se convierte en víctima de estafadores

La confianza en el mundo financiero no solo puede perderla el dólar estadounidense. La información sobre el robo de datos de aproximadamente 197 mil clientes de Coinbase, la mayor plataforma

Marek Petkovich 14:05 2025-05-19 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.