Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0807, below the 21-month SMA, and below the +1/8 Murray level, showing signs of exhaustion.

On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is trading within the bearish trend channel formed on March 12th and is likely to continue falling in the coming hours if EUR/USD consolidates below 1.0815.

If the euro breaks and consolidates above the bearish trend channel, we could expect it to reach +1/8 Murray level at 1.0864 in the coming days. EUR/USD could even reach +2/8 Murray level located at 1.0986.

On the other hand, with a rejection below 1.0815, the instrument could resume its bearish cycle, and we could expect the euro to reach the 8/8 Murray at 1.0742, the 200 EMA around 1.0719, and finally reach the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.0670.

According to the chart, the euro is reaching oversold levels. Hence, a resumption of the bullish cycle is expected. However, there is strong pressure below 1.0830, so we believe that if the euro recovers, we should expect a recovery above 1.0864. Then, EUR/USD could climb to the psychological level of 1.10.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to sell the euro below 1.0815 with a target at 1.0670.