At the start of the new week, gold is once again breaking above the psychological level of 5,000. Data released by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) on Saturday show that the central bank continued to buy gold for the 15th consecutive month in January, reflecting resilient demand amid rising fiscal risks in the world's leading economies. China's gold reserves increased by 40,000 troy ounces to 74.19 million, while their dollar value rose to USD 369.58 billion.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, market participants are now assigning a high probability to several additional interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2026.

These expectations are reinforced by U.S. data from last week, which revealed signs of slowing in the labor market and strengthened the case for further monetary easing by the Fed. On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that he is prepared to sue his recent nominee for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, if he does not agree to cut rates. On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not rule out the possibility of a criminal investigation into Warsh should he refuse to lower rates, further fueling doubts about the central bank's independence.

At the same time, the ongoing process of global de-dollarization continues to weigh on the U.S. dollar for the second day in a row, pushing it away from the two-week high reached last Thursday. This is driving capital flows into precious metals. However, positive sentiment in global equity markets is acting as a limiting factor for gains in this asset.

Despite disagreements on key issues, indirect talks between the United States and Iran regarding the future of Iran's nuclear program ended on Friday with an agreement to maintain a diplomatic approach. This reduces the risk of military confrontation in the Middle East, increases investors' risk appetite, and limits the upside potential of the safe-haven metal.

For better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the release of key monthly U.S. labor market data—the nonfarm payrolls (NFP)—on Wednesday, as well as the upcoming consumer inflation figures due on Friday, which are expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar and gold dynamics. Tomorrow's U.S. news release—retail sales—will also affect dollar volatility and, consequently, gold price movements.

From a technical perspective, gold is approaching an important resistance level at the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA). A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal. However, the 200-hour SMA currently has a downward slope, forming near-term resistance and maintaining an intraday bearish bias. A close above the 200-period SMA would positively shift the short-term outlook, while a rejection at this level would allow sellers to retain market dominance.

At the same time, on the daily chart, the MACD and RSI indicators remain in positive territory, confirming a broader bullish sentiment. If bulls manage to break above 5,000 and then 5,100, gold could once again challenge its all-time high.