On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday after rebounding from the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.3527. The rebound was precise, leading to a reversal in favor of the British pound and a return to the resistance level of 1.3611–1.3633. I am fairly confident that this level will be broken in the near future—possibly even today. This week's information background makes it extremely difficult for the dollar to maintain its recent upward momentum. A close above the 1.3611–1.3633 level would allow for a continuation of the rise toward the next 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3749.

The wave structure also suggests a continued bullish trend. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the two subsequent downward waves failed to form a lower low. This indicates not a trend reversal but a corrective wave sequence. Bearish traders still lack sufficient grounds to establish a trend of their own, and the dollar currently has very little fundamental support. Trump's trade war continues to negatively affect the U.S. currency.

On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump was highly active—announcing new tariffs, raising existing ones, threatening all trading partners, and once again criticizing Jerome Powell. Trump called Powell "slow," lamented low inflation in the U.S., and expressed confusion over the FOMC's reluctance to cut interest rates. According to Trump, many companies are returning to the U.S. or planning to start businesses there. Inflation remains low, yet each percentage point of the Fed's rate costs America 360 billion dollars per year. Trump believes the current rate should be 3% lower. However, the FOMC remains calm and does not intend to yield to presidential pressure. Powell argues that inflation will rise and that any conclusions about a slowdown in the economy or inflation growth can only be made once the final trade tariffs are known. So far this week, Trump has revised or imposed new tariffs three times. At this point, even attempting to forecast economic indicators seems pointless.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar just a few points short of the 127.2% Fibonacci correction level at 1.3795. Since the drop was unexpected and may end quickly, it is more appropriate to focus on the hourly chart for now. No forming divergences are observed on any indicator. The bullish trend remains intact.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bullish in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,302, while the number of short positions rose by 10,298. However, bears have long lost their advantage and currently have no realistic chance of success. The gap between long and short positions stands at 32,000 in favor of the bulls: 107,000 vs. 75,000.

In my view, while there may still be downward potential for the British pound, events in 2025 have significantly changed the market's long-term direction. Over the past four months, the number of long positions has increased from 65,000 to 107,000, while shorts have declined from 76,000 to 75,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and the COT reports indicate that traders lack the appetite to buy it. Therefore, regardless of the general news background, the dollar continues to decline due to developments surrounding Donald Trump.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

U.S. – Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC).

On Thursday, the economic calendar contains no significant entries. As a result, the news background will have little to no influence on market sentiment today.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling opportunities may arise today if the pair bounces from the 1.3611–1.3633 zone, with a target at 1.3527. Buying opportunities open up if the pair closes above the 1.3611–1.3633 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3749. It was also possible to buy following the rebound from the 1.3527 level.

Fibonacci level grids were built using 1.3446–1.3139 on the hourly chart and 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.