empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
13.05.2025 11:01 AM
GBP/USD – May 13th: Unemployment in Britain Is Rising Again
Open trading account Open demo account

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the 1.3139 level on Monday, rebounded from it, and rose to the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3205. A rebound from this level will support the U.S. dollar and a renewed decline toward the 1.3085 and 1.3139 levels. A close above 1.3205 would allow expectations for a rise in the pound toward 1.3344.

This image is no longer relevant

Recently, the wave structure has been straightforward. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous wave's peak, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the "bullish" trend is transforming into a "bearish" one. The pound's decline is not yet strong enough to be called a trend, but over the past three months, even such declines have been rare. Bulls will struggle to push above 1.3425 without new statements from Donald Trump regarding tariff hikes or new import duties.

Monday's news backdrop once again favored the bears. The pound's decline began last week after the Bank of England cut interest rates, the FOMC held rates steady, the U.S. signed its first trade agreement with the UK, and reached a deal with China to reduce import tariffs.

These developments have supported the bears, so it's no surprise they launched a strong offensive. Today's UK unemployment report showed the rate rising to 4.5% in March (above forecasts). Employment rose by only 120,000 (below expectations), while wages rose by 5.5% (above forecasts). Among these, the unemployment figure is the most impactful—and it doesn't favor the pound. Therefore, the decline may continue. However, the bears can only attack with obvious support factors. If this favorable backdrop dries up, the pound's decline may stall indefinitely.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435, turned in favor of the U.S. dollar, and is continuing its decline toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3118. No emerging divergences are currently present on any indicators. The ascending trend channel still points to a bullish trend. A bounce from 1.3118 would favor the pound and a potential return to growth toward 1.3435.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bullish in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions rose by 3,320, while short positions decreased by 1,956. Bears have lost their edge. The gap between long and short positions now favors the bulls by 29,000: 94K vs. 65K.

Although downward potential for the pound remains, recent developments may trigger a longer-term market reversal. Over the past three months, long positions have increased from 65K to 94K, while shorts have dropped from 76K to 65K. Under Trump's leadership, faith in the dollar has been shaken, and COT reports show that traders aren't rushing to buy the greenback.

News Calendar for the UK and US

  • UK – Unemployment Rate (06:00 UTC)
  • UK – Change in Jobless Claims (06:00 UTC)
  • UK – Change in Average Earnings (06:00 UTC)
  • US – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC)

Out of four economic releases scheduled for Tuesday, three have already been published. The remaining U.S. inflation report is expected to continue influencing trader sentiment throughout the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Sales were possible earlier when the pair closed below the 1.3344–1.3357 zone on the hourly chart and after two rejections from that same zone, targeting 1.3265 and 1.3205. All targets were surpassed. Today, selling is possible on a rebound from 1.3205 with targets at 1.3139 and 1.3085. Buying will be possible if the pair consolidates above 1.3205 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3344.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3205–1.2695 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast Gold is declining below the $3300 level today. U.S. PCE data met expectations. A shift in trade flows is helping the U.S. dollar regain positive momentum. This is also undermining
Irina Yanina
17:37 2025-05-30 +02:00
1015
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis on May 30, 2025 The wave structure for GBP/USD continues to indicate the development of an upward impulsive wave pattern. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February
Chin Zhao
17:31 2025-05-30 +02:00
1030
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/USD pair is attracting new sellers following its recent rebound from the 1.3415 level, amid modest gains in the U.S. dollar. However, today, the potential for further downside appears
Irina Yanina 13:24 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair sharply reversed in favor of the euro and rose into the resistance zone of 1.1374–1.1380. A rebound from this zone favored the U.S. dollar
Samir Klishi 10:58 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 30, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair dropped to the 1.3425 level on Thursday, then rebounded and reversed in favor of the British pound. This initiated a growth process toward
Samir Klishi 10:41 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forex forecast 30/05/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, SP500, Gold, and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful
Sebastian Seliga 09:30 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2025

Like other anti-dollar currencies, the euro quickly overcame the negative news from the U.S. Court of International Trade and closed the day with a 76-pip gain. This morning, the price
Laurie Bailey 05:26 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 30, 2025

On Thursday, the British pound reached the target support level of 1.3433, after which it reversed to the upside, closing the day with a 20-pip gain. The Marlin oscillator slowly
Laurie Bailey 05:26 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for USD/JPY on May 30, 2025

The Japanese yen made a significant move yesterday, falling more than two figures from the day's high to the close. The powerful wave of yen strengthening continues today, starting from
Laurie Bailey 05:26 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD for May 29-30, 2025: sell below $3,317 (7/8 Murray - 21 SMA)

Early in the American session, gold is trading around 3,314 with a strong technical rebound originating after reaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Gold rose sharply after testing
Dimitrios Zappas 15:58 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for May 29-30, 2025: sell below 1.1360 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, the euro is trading around 1.1331 and is experiencing a strong technical rebound after reaching the 4/8 Murray level at 1.1230. The euro could rise
Dimitrios Zappas 15:53 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 29, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to decline and consolidated below the support zone at 1.1260–1.1282. Therefore, today's price drop may continue toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6%
Samir Klishi 11:15 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 04:00 2025-05-31 UTC--4
Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2025
10:58 2025-05-30
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 23:00 2025-05-30 UTC--4
Forecast for USD/JPY on May 30, 2025
05:26 2025-05-30
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-05-31 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on May 30. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:55 2025-05-30
Forecast
Relevance up to 23:00 2025-05-30 UTC--4
Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2025
05:26 2025-05-30
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 03:00 2025-05-31 UTC--4
Forecast for GBP/USD on May 30, 2025
10:41 2025-05-30
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.