empty
21.04.2025 01:00 AM
Euro: Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

There were very few changes regarding the euro last week. We observed horizontal movement for most of the week, which naturally did not affect the current wave markup. I want to remind you that the wave structure and the instrument's movements are now entirely dependent on Donald Trump's will. Last week brought enough news from both Trump and the European Central Bank, as well as from economic data. However, there were no updates regarding the introduction of new tariffs, so the market deemed all other news irrelevant under current conditions. As a result, we didn't see any significant movement.

The situation is unlikely to change in the new week. Tariffs from Donald Trump will remain in focus, and if there are none, there might again be no notable market moves. Among economic events, I can point out the service and manufacturing PMIs for April, and that's essentially it. While last week included a European Central Bank meeting — a major event with an important decision — the new week, the market will have very little to latch onto besides the same old tariff stories. The business activity indices can certainly indicate the direction of economic development for the next quarter, but under Trump's tariff policy, it's already clear which way the EU economy is headed.

Undoubtedly, the market will stop reacting solely to new tariffs sooner or later — simply because Trump won't be able to impose or repeal them endlessly. However, at this point, I cannot say that this phase has ended. Consequently, we should prepare for the fact that the White House will continue to dictate dynamics in the currency market.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave analysis of EUR/USD

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a new upward trend section. Donald Trump's actions have reversed the previous downward trend. Therefore, the wave pattern will soon entirely depend on the position and decisions of the US president. This must constantly be kept in mind. Judging from the wave structure alone, I previously expected a three-wave correction in wave 2. However, wave 2 has already ended and took a single-wave form. Thus, the formation of wave 3 of the upward trend section has begun. Its targets could extend up to the 1.2500 level, but achieving them will depend solely on Trump.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave analysis of GBP/USD

The wave structure of GBP/USD has changed. We are now dealing with a bullish, impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, the markets may experience numerous shocks and reversals that do not conform to wave patterns or technical analysis. The presumed wave 2 is now complete, as quotes have surpassed the peak of wave 1. Therefore, we can expect the formation of an ascending wave 3, with the next targets at 1.3345 and 1.3541—assuming that Trump's stance on trade policy doesn't make a 180-degree turn, for which there is no indication.

Core principles of my analysis:
  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often prone to change.
  2. If you're unsure about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

What to Pay Attention to on May 28? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. Among the more or less noteworthy reports, only Germany's unemployment rate and the change in the number of unemployed can be highlighted

Paolo Greco 06:53 2025-05-28 UTC+2

What Could Trump's Minimal Tariffs Lead To?

Donald Trump has given countries he claims are "robbing the U.S." a three-month deadline to reach trade agreements. As of now, two months into this deadline, only one deal

Chin Zhao 00:45 2025-05-28 UTC+2

NZD/USD. May RBNZ Meeting: Preview

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce the results of its next policy meeting on May 28. According to most analysts, the central bank is expected

Irina Manzenko 00:44 2025-05-28 UTC+2

The Dollar Is Getting Used to Defeat

Everything has its limits—including Donald Trump's negotiation strategy. The longer his policy of threats followed by postponements continues, the less seriously markets take his actions. His warnings are no longer

Marek Petkovich 20:39 2025-05-27 UTC+2

Inflation in the Eurozone Gives the ECB Room to Act

The euro declined after the release of inflation data from France and the GfK report from Germany. Exactly three years ago, eurozone data showed inflation had risen to 8.1%. Immediately

Jakub Novak 20:26 2025-05-27 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is extending its decline for the second day in a row. The pressure on gold is driven by a combination of factors: optimism stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's

Irina Yanina 19:38 2025-05-27 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen continues to weaken during intraday trading. One of the key factors putting pressure on the yen is Japan's decision to consider reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds

Irina Yanina 19:35 2025-05-27 UTC+2

Trump drives market rhythm

Much ado about nothing. President Trump's announcement of 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union starting June 1—only to delay them until July 9—barely rattled financial markets. Investors

Marek Petkovich 12:11 2025-05-27 UTC+2

Bank of Japan Plans To Raise Rates Further

Despite the Bank of Japan's plans to continue raising interest rates, the yen is currently heading in a very different direction. During his speech today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo

Jakub Novak 11:32 2025-05-27 UTC+2

Christine Lagarde Believes in the Euro

The European currency showed little reaction yesterday to a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who stated that the unpredictable policies of President Donald Trump present an excellent

Jakub Novak 11:19 2025-05-27 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.