empty
03.04.2025 06:10 AM
GBP/USD Pair Overview – April 3. The Market is Tired of Trump's Tariffs

This image is no longer relevant

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade in a total flat on April 2. What caused the dollar to stop falling? After all, Trump announces new tariffs or teases upcoming ones almost every week. First, we want to emphasize that such an important event as the announcement of a new U.S. trade policy shouldn't be analyzed hastily. Recall that it's not uncommon for EUR/USD to move strongly in one direction right after a Federal Reserve meeting, only to retrace the next day. The same could happen here, as these are events of similar scale. It's best to conclude only after some time has passed.

Let's also recall that just a week ago, Trump imposed tariffs on all automobile imports into the U.S., and the dollar didn't significantly decline. Why? In our view, the market is simply tired of Donald Trump. Yes, tired—after less than 2.5 months of his presidency. It brings to mind the first four years of Trump in office: two impeachment attempts, hostile remarks toward journalists, a trade war with China, and an average of 14.6 false statements per day (official data). So, if anyone truly believed Trump would end the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours, they were likely very naive.

Likewise, Trump promises to "Make America Great Again" but fails to mention who will pay for his plans. It might seem like the rest of the world, who've "robbed America for years." However, the Trump administration is slapping an additional 10–25% cost on any imported goods. And who pays for these goods? American companies and consumers. So, who's footing the bill for America's future greatness? Americans themselves.

Demand for European and Chinese goods will fall, and the EU and China will suffer from the tariffs. But they will suffer—Americans will pay. Trump wants to lower taxes and introduce various tax breaks, but it all looks like: "We'll raise prices by 25%, then give a 5% discount." In any case, the American people elected Trump, and at this point, there's no use crying over spilled milk. They knowingly chose a leader with a well-documented governing style—they had four years to observe it. That choice signals that they accept the consequences. Previously, many Americans criticized high spending under Democrats on aid to Ukraine, Israel, and NATO. With Trump, Washington will spend less, and Americans will pay more for the same goods they used to buy.

The British pound maintains a short-term uptrend while the long-term downtrend persists. We don't see strong reasons for a sustained rally in the British currency.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 82 pips, which is considered "average" for this currency pair. On Thursday, April 3, we expect the pair to trade within a range limited by 1.2881 to 1.3045. The long-term regression channel has turned upward, but the downtrend remains intact on the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator has not recently entered overbought or oversold territory.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.2939

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2695

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3184

R3 – 1.3306

Trading Recommendations:

GBP/USD maintains a medium-term downtrend, while the 4-hour chart shows a weak correction that could end as the market avoids buying the dollar. We still do not consider long positions, as the current upward move appears to be a technical correction on the daily timeframe that has become illogical. However, if you trade based purely on technicals, long positions are possible with targets at 1.3045 and 1.3062—but the market is still range-bound. Short positions remain more attractive, with targets at 1.2207 and 1.2146, because sooner or later, the upward correction on the daily chart will end (assuming the previous downtrend hasn't ended already). The British pound looks extremely overbought and unjustifiably expensive, but it's hard to predict how long the dollar's Trump-driven decline will last.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trump Wants to "Pass the Ball" to Europe

Last week, it became known that Donald Trump is seriously considering raising trade tariffs for all countries currently engaged in negotiations with the U.S. Trump is frustrated by the slow

Chin Zhao 00:39 2025-06-17 UTC+2

The Dollar Walks on Thin Ice

When there's money, you buy the best. In past years, the US dollar and dollar-denominated assets—especially shares of the "Magnificent Seven"—were considered the best investments. American stock indices

Marek Petkovich 00:39 2025-06-17 UTC+2

USD/JPY. June Meeting of the Bank of Japan: A Preview

On Tuesday, June 17, the Bank of Japan will announce the results of its next policy meeting. According to preliminary forecasts, the central bank is expected to leave all monetary

Irina Manzenko 00:39 2025-06-17 UTC+2

The Pound Ignores Weak Data and Persistently Tries to Continue Rising

The macroeconomic data from the UK published last week looks frankly weak—everything is in the red zone, meaning worse than expected. Nevertheless, the pound continues to climb upward regardless

Kuvat Raharjo 19:36 2025-06-16 UTC+2

CFTC Report: The Dollar Is Being Sold Off Again. Awaiting New Revelations from Trump

Five weeks ago, the total short position on the U.S. dollar against major currencies stopped increasing, which gave reason to believe the dollar might begin an offensive in the currency

Kuvat Raharjo 12:14 2025-06-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum while remaining on the defensive. Traders prefer to wait for the release of key data before opening directional positions

Irina Yanina 12:10 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum, approaching the psychological level of 1.600 and price levels last seen in 2021. Traders are eagerly awaiting the important political

Irina Yanina 12:08 2025-06-16 UTC+2

The Israel-Iran Confrontation. Fed Meeting. What's Next? (I expect further decline in USD/CAD and a local pullback in gold before a new wave of growth)

Israel and Iran are exchanging missile strikes, but it seems markets are trying to play their own game, assuming that this conflict will not cross the nuclear threshold

Pati Gani 10:51 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD: War Is No Ally to the Greenback

At the start of the new trading week, the EUR/USD pair stayed within the 1.15 range and is even trying to approach the resistance level of 1.1600 despite the ongoing

Irina Manzenko 10:32 2025-06-16 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 16? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday, but the market does not lack news. This week, Donald Trump announced his intention to raise all import tariffs, as none

Paolo Greco 06:46 2025-06-16 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.