Forex Analysis & Reviews: 26.03.2025 - Stock Market Update for...

26.03.2025 09:44 AM

Stock Market Update for March 26th: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Continue Gradual Recovery

At the close of yesterday's regular session, U.S. stock indices finished in positive territory. The S&P 500 gained 0.16%, while the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.46%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained virtually unchanged.

The stock market has slowed its upward momentum, as investors, spooked by weakening U.S. consumer confidence, refrained from initiating new purchases. Uncertainty surrounding upcoming tariffs from President Donald Trump is also holding back further growth and recovery in the U.S. equity market. Investors, wary of a larger trade war and its potential impact on corporate earnings, are acting cautiously — reflected in lower trading volumes and increased volatility. Moreover, Trump's indecisiveness on economic policy — particularly regarding tax reform and infrastructure projects — is adding to market anxiety. The lack of concrete plans and timelines for promised measures is preventing investors from forming confident outlooks on future economic growth.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped sharply after a 0.3% gain. U.S. copper prices surged to record highs as traders brace for import tariffs. Futures on U.S. and European stock indices edged slightly lower during Asian trading, while yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration stated that the next wave of U.S. tariffs may be less broad and more targeted than initially feared. On Tuesday, Trump said during a speech that he didn't want "too many exemptions," but he would likely be more lenient, believing aggressive measures would negatively affect end consumers — meaning ordinary people.

While markets found some comfort in Trump's recent comments about "reciprocal" tariffs, which are expected to be announced on April 2, Tuesday's U.S. economic data intensified investors' concerns about the world's largest economy. Weak consumer confidence figures had a strong impact on the U.S. stock market, cooling buyers' enthusiasm.

The Hang Seng Tech Index rebounded 1.6% on Wednesday after a previous day's decline. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley economists raised their year-end 2025 targets for the index. Similarly, Goldman Sachs strategists expect more fundamental growth as more favorable earnings revisions are anticipated.

On the geopolitical front, the U.S. stated that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea — although the Kremlin said its participation would depend on several preconditions, including the lifting of sanctions. The U.S. also pledged to help restore Russia's access to the global market for agricultural exports and fertilizers, lower maritime insurance costs, and improve port and payment system access for such transactions. This was officially announced by the White House yesterday.

In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is taking steps to prevent widespread protests and avert a financial market crash, while simultaneously cracking down on his opponents.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday after an industry report showed a drawdown in U.S. inventories. Gold remained near its all-time high.

Technical Outlook for S&P 500

The recovery continues. The key objective for buyers today is to break above the nearest resistance at $5791. Achieving this will support continued growth and open the way for a move toward the next level at $5813. Another top priority for the bulls is to gain control above $5831, which would further strengthen their position.

If the index moves lower due to reduced risk appetite, buyers must step in around the $5766 area. A breakdown below this level could push the instrument quickly back to $5740 and open the path toward $5715.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.