empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
14.03.2025 12:06 PM
GBP/USD: March 14th. UK Economic Data Fails to Impress
Open trading account Open demo account

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD retraced to 1.2931 on Thursday, where bearish momentum faded. Another test of this level occurred today, but overall, the pound has been moving sideways over the past few days. A break below 1.2931 would allow for a decline toward 1.2865 and 1.2810, while a rebound from this level could push the pair toward the 127.2% corrective level at 1.3003.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure is absolutely clear. The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the last upward wave broke the previous peak. This suggests that a bullish trend remains in place. The pound has shown strong growth recently—perhaps even excessively strong. The fundamental background is not strong enough to justify continuous buying pressure without corrections or pauses. However, most traders avoid buying the U.S. dollar regardless of economic data, as Donald Trump keeps imposing new tariffs, which will eventually slow U.S. and global economic growth.

Thursday's fundamental data was mixed, while Friday's morning reports were clear-cut. The UK released its first and last major reports for the week, revealing that GDP for January declined by 0.1% month-over-month, against expectations of a 0.1% increase. Industrial production volumes dropped by 0.9% month-over-month, while forecasts pointed to only a 0.1% decline. These figures provided a logical reason for bears to take control, yet after two weeks of pound appreciation, there has been no correction, pullback, or response to economic data in favor of the dollar.

The 1.2931 level is not strong enough to act as an insurmountable barrier for the market. The issue lies in traders' lack of interest in buying the U.S. dollar—which remains absent. The reason continues to be U.S. foreign policy and Donald Trump's actions.

This image is no longer relevant

On the four-hour chart, GBP/USD continues to rise after consolidating above the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2861. A strong pound decline is unlikely unless prices close below the upward channel. The CCI indicator has formed a bearish divergence, but this has not yet affected bullish positioning. A rebound from 1.2994 could trigger a decline toward 1.2861, but there are no sellers in the market.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

The Non-commercial traders' sentiment has become less bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions increased by 7,777, while the number of short positions decreased by 6,334. Bears have lost their market advantage. The gap between long and short positions has now widened to nearly 20,000 in favor of bulls: 82,000 long vs. 63,000 short.

I believe that GBP/USD still has downward potential, but recent developments may force a long-term market reversal. Over the past three months, the number of long positions declined from 98,000 to 81,000, while the number of short positions dropped from 78,000 to 63,000. Over time, professional traders may reduce long positions or increase shorts, as most bullish factors for the pound have already played out. However, a sudden shift in sentiment toward the U.S. economy due to Donald Trump may deter traders from buying the dollar or selling the pound.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

  • UK – GDP Change for January (07:00 UTC)
  • UK – Industrial Production Change (07:00 UTC)
  • U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

Friday's economic calendar includes three key events, two of which have already been released. The impact of fundamental data on market sentiment for the rest of the day is expected to be limited.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today after a rebound from 1.2994 on the four-hour chart or after a close below 1.2931 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.2865 and 1.2810. Buying opportunities arise after a rebound from 1.2931 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.2994.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.2809–1.2100 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299–1.3432 on the four-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast The USD/CAD pair is showing a modest recovery from levels below 1.3600, retracing most of the previous day's losses, supported by a rebound in the U.S. dollar. In addition, concerns
Irina Yanina
13:09 2025-06-13 +02:00
1555
Fundamental analysis
AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast The AUD/JPY pair has been under selling pressure for the third consecutive day, reaching an almost two-week low around 92.30 during Friday's Asian session. After a sharp drop, spot prices
Irina Yanina
12:53 2025-06-13 +02:00
1360
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 13, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1574. However, during the night, a sharp reversal occurred in favor
Samir Klishi 11:52 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 13, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the 1.3520 level, surged to the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620, bounced off it twice, and then fell back
Samir Klishi 11:49 2025-06-13 UTC+2

EUR/USD. June 12. A Setback for the Dollar

Good day, dear traders! On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support zone of 1.1374–1.1380. It successfully consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level
Samir Klishi 10:15 2025-06-12 UTC+2

GBP/USD. June 12. British Economy Falters

Good day, dear traders! On the hourly chart, on Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the British pound and consolidated above the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3520
Samir Klishi 10:15 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement Crude Oil Commodity Instrument, Thursday June 12, 2025.

If we look at the daily chart of the Crude Oil commodity instrument, there appears to be a Divergence between the price movement of #CL and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator
Arief Makmur 08:10 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Thursday June 12, 2025.

On the 4-hour chart of the Nasdaq 100 index, there is a divergence between its price movement and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator, especially with the current confirmation of the price
Arief Makmur 08:10 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 12-19, 2025: sell below 1.1500 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

If the euro price falls below 1.1500 in the coming hours, this could be seen as an opportunity to sell. Technically, it appears overbought on the H4 chart and could
Dimitrios Zappas 05:33 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 12-19, 2025: sell below $3,386 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

The XAU/USD trend remains bullish as long as the price consolidates above 3,331. Therefore, it would be prudent to buy gold as long as the price consolidates above 3,359, where
Dimitrios Zappas 05:32 2025-06-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for June 12, 2025

The U.S. inflation data released on Wednesday stirred the markets: the dollar index dropped by 0.47%, WTI oil surged by 5.54%, gold rose by 1.27%, and 5-year U.S. Treasury yields
Laurie Bailey 04:40 2025-06-12 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for June 12, 2025

On Wednesday, the British pound successfully avoided a decline below technical support levels, reversing upward from them. The price rebounded from the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, while
Laurie Bailey 04:40 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 04:00 2025-06-14 UTC--5
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – June 13th (U.S. Session)
12:44 2025-06-13
Forecast
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-06-13 UTC--5
EUR/USD Overview – June 13: America's Economy Gets Lucky
03:41 2025-06-13
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-06-14 UTC--5
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on June 13
07:46 2025-06-13
Forecast
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-06-13 UTC--5
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 13: Trump Warns of Tariff Hikes
03:40 2025-06-13
Trading plan
Relevance up to 04:00 2025-06-14 UTC--5
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on June 13th (Review of Morning Trades)
12:31 2025-06-13
Trading plan
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.