empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
25.01.2024 04:15 PM
Bitcoin recovers above $40k: local trend reversal?
Open trading account Open demo account

Over the past three weeks, Bitcoin has been in a correction phase, which should be viewed as a profit-taking cycle after a long and uninterrupted rally. The approval of the spot BTC-ETF was the event that triggered a massive sale of BTC coins, but the current trading week showed that this process might be prolonged and intensified. Despite the strong positions of buyers, the cryptocurrency price broke the $40k level, significantly weakening the structure of the upward trend.

This image is no longer relevant

At the end of yesterday's trading day, the asset managed to recover above $40k, after retesting $38.5k and further recovering to $39k. This event should be seen as a positive sign, however, it remains questionable whether the reversal above $40k will lead to a reversal of the local trend and the end of the correction. Such a possibility exists, but as of January 25, there are too few signals in the market for such a development.

Fundamental factors

Macroeconomic indicators in the USA have shown disheartening growth dynamics in business activity and consumer goods prices. This means that inflation will at least show resilience by the end of January, and at most, the indicator will continue to grow towards 3.5%. At the same time, a significant reduction in the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter from 4.9% to 2% is expected, which could positively affect investment assets and provoke a decrease in the U.S. dollar index.

This image is no longer relevant

In such a case, markets can expect long-term positivity, as it will most likely mean that the Federal Reserve will begin easing monetary policy earlier than the second half of 2024. The U.S. leading indicators index has been declining for 21 consecutive months, indicating an approaching recession, which can also be interpreted as a signal for a quicker transition to lowering the interest rate. However, if the U.S. GDP turns out to be above 2%, it will provoke a strengthening of the U.S. dollar and a decrease in Bitcoin and other investment assets.

Bitcoin above $40k

The cryptocurrency managed to consolidate and close the previous trading day above $40k. At the moment, the cryptocurrency price reached the $40.5k mark, which now plays the role of a key resistance level. This event indicates high bullish sentiments in the BTC market and increasing buying volumes. Among buyers, it's worth highlighting BlackRock, which purchased an additional 4,079 BTC for its BTC-ETF, bringing the company's total balance to 44,004 BTC worth $1.7 billion.

This image is no longer relevant

Bitcoin has given an important bullish signal, but it's still too early to talk about the end of the local downward trend. If the cryptocurrency manages to hold the $40k level and continue its upward movement towards $40.5k, the chances of a full reversal will significantly increase. However, ideally, the cryptocurrency needs to consolidate above $42k to neutralize selling pressure. As of January 25, there are clearly not enough bullish volumes for such a powerful upward impulse.

This image is no longer relevant

At the same time, the possibility of further downward movement remains. If we assess Bitcoin's growth in terms of an upward correction in the structure of the downward trend, it appears that the cryptocurrency's movement is logical. On the 4H chart, when constructing the correction according to Fibonacci, we see that the asset's price clearly reached the classic zone where the correction ends—between the 0.618 and 0.5 levels. This means that if BTC does not consolidate above $40.5k in the shortest term, another downward impulse will begin, with the potential to reach $37k.

Conclusion

The macroeconomic background is still in a state of uncertainty, as are the financial markets, but a resolution is near. Bitcoin maintains the structure of a downward trend, and if the asset doesn't make a bullish leap above $40.5k in the coming days, the likelihood of a deeper correction with a full plunge below $40k will significantly increase. Much of the situation will depend on the macroeconomic data from the U.S., which can either give BTC another chance for recovery or accelerate the start of a new downward impulse.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis on June 17, 2025 The wave pattern on the GBP/USD chart continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulsive wave pattern. The wave layout closely mirrors that of EUR/USD, as the main driver
Chin Zhao
21:24 2025-06-17 +02:00
1315
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis on June 17, 2025 The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart continues to indicate the development of an upward trend segment. This transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade policy. Until
Chin Zhao
21:18 2025-06-17 +02:00
1240
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

JPMorgan Chase & Co. plans to launch its own stablecoin

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest US bank by assets and market capitalization, has filed a trademark application for what appears to be a new blockchain-based asset called JPMD, sparking
Jakub Novak 11:25 2025-06-17 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 17

Bitcoin dropped from $108,700 to $106,000, while Ethereum fell from a high of $2,676 to $2,525 before slightly recovering. While crypto traders anticipate a sustained bullish trend and a potential
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:04 2025-06-17 UTC+2

What are odds of BTC trading at $150K by August?

For several days, Bitcoin hovered above the $105,000 level, seemingly waiting. But today, it broke through. We've witnessed a classic consolidation phase ahead of a possible price surge
Ekaterina Kiseleva 17:22 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 16

Bitcoin and Ethereum regained their positions following a major sell-off at the end of last week, which occurred after the outbreak of the military conflict between Iran and Israel. This
Miroslaw Bawulski 08:55 2025-06-16 UTC+2

The Cryptocurrency Market Collapsed — Here's Why

Bitcoin and Ethereum have crashed. Bitcoin lost around 3.5% during morning trading alone, while Ethereum dropped by more than 10%, then slightly rebounded. Panic swept through the cryptocurrency market immediately
Jakub Novak 11:12 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 13

Bitcoin and Ethereum plunged following Israel's overnight strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, triggering a massive sell-off of risk assets, including in the cryptocurrency market. Should Iran launch a serious retaliatory
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:04 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Filecoin Cryptocurrency, Friday June 13, 2025.

Not much different from other cryptocurrencies such as Solana, Filecoin also has almost similar conditions on its 4-hour chart where there is a Divergence between the Filecoin price movement
Arief Makmur 07:39 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Solana Cryptocurrency, Friday June 13, 2025.

With the appearance of Divergence between the price movement of the Solana cryptocurrency on its 4-hour chart, with the Stochastic Oscillator indicator and confirmed by the labeling of its price
Arief Makmur 07:39 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 12

Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a notable pullback after another unsuccessful attempt to rally. Bitcoin could not retest its all-time high, and Ethereum could not surpass the $2900 mark. U.S. Treasury
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:10 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Solana spot ETF around corner

Right now, Solana is in the spotlight for traders. According to the latest reports, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has requested that potential Solana ETF issuers submit amended
Jakub Novak 16:23 2025-06-11 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget