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07.04.2023 12:06 AM
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 06, 2023
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Overview :

Since last week, the EUR/USD pair has faced strong resistances at the levels of 1.0880 because support had become resistance last week. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 1.0880 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0880, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 1.0880 (the level of 1.0880 coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci - last bullish wave - double top).

Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). The trend of EUR/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in the downtrend channel. Due to the previous events, the price is still set between the levels of 1.0808 and 1.0669, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in these levels because the prices of 1.0808 and 1.0669 are representing the resistance and support respectively.

It is necessary to wait till the downtrend channel is passed through. Then the market will probably show the signs of a bearish market. It should be noted that the volatility is very high for that the price of the EUR/USD pair is still trading between the prices of 1.0669 and 1.0808 in the coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.0808 and 1.0851 which coincide with the ratios of Fibonacci retracement levels respectively. Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.0880 so it will be good to sell at 1.0808 with the first target of 1.0669.

It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.0630. The daily strong support is seen at 1.0600. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0851. Moving averages, in the meantime, maintain their bearish slope way above the current level.

Furthermore, although the news is bearish for the EUR/USD pair, professional may not want to sell weakness, but rather following a rebound rally. Additionally, some aggressive counter-trend buyers may be defending parity. In case a continuisions takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.0669, a further decline to 1.0600 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

The EUR/USD pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 1.0669 or lower. Immediate support is seen around 1.0669. A clear break below that area could lead price to the neutral zone in the nearest term. Price will test 1.06030, because in general, we remain bearish on between Feb 13rd and Feb 18th, 2023. The market moved from its bottom at 1.0669 and continued to rise towards the top of 1.0680. Today, on the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction.

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However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0732 (major resistance), the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.0669 (the level of 1.0669 coincides with the ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement - last bearish wave). This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend.

The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 1.0669 with the first target at 1.0630 so as to test the double bottom. If the trend breaks the double bottom level of 1.0600, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level of 1.0600 in order to test the weekly support 2. The third weekly support is set at the price of 1.0543.

Mourad El Keddani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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